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Instacart Reorder Recommender

ML recommender · Mar–Jun 2026 · Local case study

A known-shopper grocery reorder recommender with leakage-aware data validation, saved training artifacts, calibrated ranking, baseline lift, serving endpoints, monitoring, and a browser demo.

What it is

The product question is straightforward: for a known shopper, which items should appear in a buy-again shelf or smart cart suggestion?

That is a practical recommender surface because grocery buying has rhythm, basket context, and repeated products. It should not be framed as cold-start discovery or a live commerce impact claim.

The loop it has to make believable

  1. 01

    Evaluated candidate ranking separately from full-basket reconstruction so the metrics do not overstate product value.

  2. 02

    Saved feature contracts and fingerprints so training and serving can be checked against the same artifact boundary.

How it’s built

The repo is strongest where many recommender demos are weak: contracts, leakage control, split protocol, evaluation boundaries, calibration, and serving parity.

The FastAPI app loads saved artifacts and returns ranked products with feature version, request ID, fallback status, and latency metadata.

Architecture

Data path
Raw Instacart CSVs, point-in-time validation, referential integrity, deterministic splits, dataset fingerprints
Features
65 serving features under contract ca27e59e71136bc1
Evaluation
Candidate reorder and full-basket contracts, baseline lift, slice metrics, calibration plots, threshold curves
Serving
FastAPI loads model artifacts, feature schema, processed feature tables, product metadata, demo bundle, and monitoring state

What has to hold up

  • Reported LightGBM temporal candidate F1 of 0.5665, full-basket F1 of 0.4159, P@10 of 0.5577, R@10 of 0.7025, and 1.67x lift over recency.
  • Exposed recommendations, portfolio overview, health, OpenAPI docs, monitoring, and latency metadata through FastAPI.

How I would present it

I would show the portfolio endpoint and one recommendation request, then inspect the run summary and baseline lift table.

The honest claim is artifact-backed offline ML plus local serving, not an online A/B-tested production recommender.

Proof

The strongest proof is the checked-in March 4, 2026 verification run, resume_release evidence pack, and artifact-backed FastAPI/browser demo path.

VerifyRepository, checks, stack, status
  1. 01

    Start with the project status and available evidence.

  2. 02

    Read the architecture and edge-case sections.

  3. 03

    Follow the documented proof path: README, verify_run_20260304, feature contract, resume_release evidence, API demo path.

Role
Data contracts, feature engineering, model evaluation, serving API
Scope
Artifact-backed grocery reorder recommender
Proof
README, verify_run_20260304, feature contract, resume_release evidence, API demo path
Stack
Python, Pandas, LightGBM, XGBoost, FastAPI, Pydantic, Prometheus
Candidate F1
0.5665
Basket F1
0.4159
P@10/R@10
0.5577/0.7025
Tests
93 passed